Assessing Systemic Importance With a Fuzzy Logic Inference System

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions' size, connectedness and non-substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network; and (iii) asset value of core financial services. An aggregated systemic importance index is calculated based on expert knowledge by using a fuzzy logic inference system. We use principal component analysis to calculate a benchmark index for comparison purposes. Overall similarities between both indexes put forward that expert knowledge aggregation is consistent with that based on a purely quantitative standard approach. Specific non-negligible differences concur with the nonlinear features of an approach whose intention is to replicate human reasoning. Both indexes are complementary and provide a comprehensive relative assessment of each financial institution's systemic importance in the Colombian case, in which the choice of metrics pursues the macroprudential perspective of financial stability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A net stable funding ratio for Islamic banks and its impact on financial stability: An international investigation

The Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) is the standard setting body for the Islamic banking industry. The IFSB, while endorsing the Basel III accord, modified the criteria to calculate the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) to cater for the unique aspects of the Islamic banking industry. In this paper, we calculated the modified NSFR of 136 Islamic banks from 30 jurisdictions between 2000 and 2013 and explored the potential impact the requirements of this ratio has on the financial stability of Islamic banks after controlling for bank, country, and market-specific variables. The empirical findings suggest that the modified NSFR has a positive impact on the financial stability of Islamic banks during the sample period. However, the marginal impact of the NSFR on stability diminishes as the size of the bank increases. The results remained robust after applying an alternative measure of stability and using an alternative estimation model based on an instrumental variable approach. These results validate the use of the IFSB’s modified NSFR for Islamic banks as a regulatory measure.     

BEHAVIORAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION: ASYMPTOTICS AND STABILITY ALONG A SEQUENCE OF MODELS

We consider a sequence of financial markets that converges weakly in a suitable sense and maximize a behavioral preference functional in each market. For expected concave utilities, it is well known that the maximal expected utilities and the corresponding final positions converge to the corresponding quantities in the limit model. We prove similar results for nonconcave utilities and distorted expectations as employed in behavioral finance, and we illustrate by a counterexample that these results require a stronger notion of convergence of the underlying models compared to the concave utility maximization. We use the results to analyze the stability of behavioral portfolio selection problems and to provide numerically tractable methods to solve such problems in complete continuous‐time models.     

后路隧道施工重点及难点分析研究

本文主要以中石化中原建设工程有限公司承建的海西天然气管网二期工程-后路隧道工程为例,分析研究大坡度、小断面隧道施工中的控制重点、难点及相关处理措施,并通过对隧道开挖的重点环节进行分析研究来确定相应的应对措施,旨在为今后类似情况的隧道施工提供科学依据。     

路基稳定性数值分析

本文通过对常见的路基稳定性分析案例进行强度折减法的数值分析,为进一步研究这一方法在路基稳定性分析中的应用奠定基础。     

The temporal nature of growth determinants in new bank foundings: implications for new venture research design

Several authors have suggested the founding period as a critical time in the development of a firm, arguing that the resource and decision choices made at this point have a substantive impact on the firm's future. Yet, historically, most studies have measured new venture choices considerably after the founding period. We suggest that the uniqueness of the founding event is important and test its validity through the examination of two implicit assertions. These implicit assertions are those of temporal stability and temporal locus of growth determinants.     

论货币政策与金融稳定的内生性冲突——基于资产价格和流动性分析的视角

本文首先综述了国际上关于货币政策对金融稳定影响的主要学术观点,然后应用Shin(2006)基础性的研究成果.提出了一个用于分析货币政策对金融稳定影响的理论框架.文章分析了在一个信贷约束市场上货币政策对金融稳定影响机制.研究表明,由于具有自强化反馈机制和不对称性特征,货币政策在追求自身目标实现过程中,有可能导致金融失衡.     

Price Stability in Economies with Habit Persistence

This paper shows that the divine‐coincidence does not hold in a sticky price model with external habit if a time‐varying tax rate on labor income is not implemented to fully eliminate the time‐varying distortions associated with external habit and monopoly power in goods market. The required labor income tax rate is inversely related to the risk‐free real interest rate and the markup in the goods market, but it is proportional to the degree of external habit. Under this circumstance, the optimal monetary policy commands a countercyclical interest rate, having a perfect negative correlation with tax rate in the sticky price model with external habit. If a time‐invariant tax is the only fiscal instrument, then the degree of external habit entails a gap between the private marginal rate of substitution between consumption and labor and the social marginal rate of substitution, generating an endogenous trade‐off between the stabilization of welfare‐relevant output gap and inflation. Under this circumstance, price stability is not the optimal policy. The monetary policy authority should optimally try to undo the time‐varying distortions associated with external habit and monopoly power in goods market by deviating from price stability.     

对我国金融机构资产负债表、杠杆率与金融稳定的思考

金融机构的资金来源方式、资金运用方式会影响金融机构本身和金融体系的杠杆率与稳定性。若金融机构或金融体系主要通过金融市场融资,资金运用主要集中于金融资产,并且通过金融资产进行再融资的规模不受限制,那么面对宏观经济或金融市场的冲击,这种类型的金融机构或金融体系的杠杆率会快速下降,在其资产和负债的期限错配较严重时,资金链条就会断裂,引发系统性金融风险。通过分析不同的资金来源和运用方式对金融机构杠杆率产生的影响,并结合历史上数次金融危机的教训,针对杠杆率快速下降时如何维护金融稳定提出了政策建议。